Trade friction in September steel exports fell more than a year-on-year
Although the first 9 months of China's steel exports grew 2.4%, but in September alone China's steel exports fell 21.78 percent year on year.
Trade frictions against steel products are an important reason for the decline in steel exports, following the first Chinese steel exports last year, 100 million tons, China's steel exports into a few "public criticism", only the first 8 months of China's steel trade friction up to 35 , The amount involved $ 5.886 billion.
Analysts believe that China's steel exports have touched a 20% of the invisible "ceiling": 2015, China's steel exports accounted for 24% of the world's export market, China's export market share and the distribution of iron and steel industry is relatively dispersed, To other countries to dumping, subsidies, environmental protection, labor, etc. as an excuse for strong resistance.
The future of China's steel exports will be in China's iron and steel trade frictions between the advantages and difficulties to find a balance.
September steel exports fell sharply
October 13, the General Administration of Customs data show that from January to September China's total exports of steel 85.12 million tons, an increase of 2.4%; but in September China's steel exports 8.8 million tons, down 210,000 tons last month, down 21.78% .
This is, of course, and the domestic steel prices up, companies are more willing to put the spot market in the domestic market, but in the "My Steel Network" Information Director Xu Xiangchun view, steel prices is a short-term factor, the long term, exports more than 100 million tons , China's steel became the target of public criticism, facing enormous trade protection pressure, export growth space is limited.
His economic forecast to the 21st century journalists to provide forecast data show that the future of steel monthly exports will remain at the level of 800 million to 10 million tons.
Xu Xiangchun said that in 2015 China exported 8.54 million tons and 2.16 million tons of steel to the EU and the US, accounting for 22.7% and 5.9% of its imports, accounting for 5.5% and 1.9% of its total demand. Exports accounted for only 14.6% of steel production, far lower than Japan, South Korea's 38.8% and 44.8%, also lower than the world average of 28.6%. "The data point of view, China's steel exports to Europe and the United States market is not enough impact, dumping is difficult to set up."
However, China's steel industry seems to have become the target of public criticism.
Ministry of Commerce data show that the first 8 months of trade friction, steel products top, a total of 35 cases, the amount involved $ 5.886 billion, accounting for all the same period this year, the number and amount of trade remedy cases about half of the number of cases and the amount of year-on-year rise 40% and 63% respectively.
It is noteworthy that not long ago, the European Union, the United States both refused to automatically granted in December this year, China's market economy status, including steel and other industries overcapacity and external dumping is a common "cause."
Wu Youtao, deputy director of the China International Experience Exchange Center, said steel as a free flow of goods, there will not be surplus here, not elsewhere, in fact, in 2014 the global crude steel production capacity utilization of 73.4%, OECD (OECD) countries is 76.4%, China is 72.8%, overall, China's general and international flat. "Europe and the United States to China's steel production capacity surplus as an excuse for their implementation of trade remedy, and market economy status linked, it is unacceptable."
Bai Ming, deputy director of the Institute of International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, 15 years since accession to the WTO, due to non - recognition of China 's market economy status, according to the surrogate country prices can easily launch anti - dumping investigations against Chinese products. China, the world's most severely affected by the anti-dumping and countervailing ( "double reverse") investigation, has been the biggest anti-dumping target for 21 consecutive years.
"A lot of anti-dumping cases against steel, because such measures are too easy to initiate, they have the option, there will be abuse of anti-dumping measures."
Earlier this month, the European Commission once again this is originating in China's hot-rolled plates and plates of two types of steel products to make anti-dumping measures, the Ministry of Commerce Trade Relief Bureau official said, the EU for a variety of steel products used in China is not Fair and unreasonable surrogate country survey methods, the frequent implementation of trade remedy measures, there is a clear tendency to trade protectionism.
20% market share "ceiling"
In fact, China does not encourage large-scale export of steel products, but to take a series of measures to control the export of steel products, such as levy tariffs on some steel products, take the initiative to cut steel products export tax rebate rate.
However, with the improvement of international competitiveness, 2015 China's steel exports increased by 20% for the first time exceeded 100 million tons, reaching 112.4 million tons. Xu Xiangchun is expected this year and last year's level is almost, and this is enough to make foreign steel mills worried.
"China's steel industry, whether supply capacity, or quality, price, export 150 million or 200 million tons of steel is no problem, not to mention the proportion of exports and Japan and South Korea, even if the world average, exports can be more than 200 million Ton."
Although China's steel exports are mainly concentrated in developing countries, but the volume of 100 million tons, must pass through the price to the European and American markets. This is the direct cause of the spread of trade protection cases.
More importantly, in 2015 China's steel exports accounted for 24% of the world steel export market, more than 20% for two consecutive years. Xu Xiangchun that China's steel exports have touched an invisible "ceiling."
Xu Xiangchun said that the steel industry has the characteristics of economies of scale, in the national economy is in an important position, governments are usually highly protected, the world steel export market share and thus has been relatively scattered state, "the international steel market is not a free competitive market, steel exports Mainly depends on whether the exporting country to accept its export and therefore there are invisible ceilings.
The ceiling can be measured by market share: once more than 20%, will encounter strong resistance from the importing country's steel mills, superimposed on economic recession and a serious excess capacity, more likely to become target, dumping, subsidies, environmental protection, labor, quality and exchange rate, Industrial policy and so may be an excuse for trade friction.
Japan is a typical, in 1971 its exports of steel accounted for the world's total steel trade for the first time exceeded 20%, in a period of time, the "Japanese economic threat" popular, steel trade friction intensified.
Xu Xiangchun said that the current global trade volume of iron and steel in the 400 million tons to maintain a period of time, China's exports of 100 million tons, accounting for nearly a quarter of world steel exports, the share of Japan's share in 1973, China's steel exports rise little space.
The future development of two possibilities: First, withstand the pressure of trade friction steel, continue to increase exports of steel, which will lead to a strong rebound in foreign countries, the Chinese government to take measures to further upgrade trade friction; the second is the use of China on the one hand The WTO dispute settlement mechanism to deal with trade friction, on the other hand take the initiative to take measures to control the number of exports, the release of a clear signal to appease the feelings of foreign steel mills, trade friction cooling so that China's steel exports in a period (such as 10 years) 100 million tons or so.
The two evils take its light, Xu Xiangchun that the latter may be a better choice. "Future exports will strike a balance between China's steel advantage and trade frictional resistance: high resistance, modest restraint, little resistance, and an opportunity to export more," he said.