International Steel Association: the global steel industry crisis mitigation The demand will rise in the next two years
The crisis in the global steel industry, which is leading to the closure of large steel mills and unemployment of workers, is now eased and steel demand is expected to rise this year and next, Worldsteel said in a meeting in Dubai on Tuesday.
The Association expects global steel demand in 2017 over the previous year, up 0.5% to 1.51 billion tons this year, demand is expected to rise 0.2% to 1.501 billion tons.
In April, the association had expected demand to fall 0.8 percent this year.
"Global steel demand is through the bottom of the current cycle," the International Iron and Steel Institute said, because the prospects for China and Russia better than expected, and in addition to emerging Asian countries, China's strong growth.
Global steel demand fell 0.3% last year to 1.499 billion tonnes, according to MEPS, a steel consultancy, and prices fell to their lowest level since 2004. Since then, steel prices have rebounded about 30%.
"The forecast does show that 2017 steel prices will be better," MetalBulletinResearch research director AlistairRamsay said.
"One of our concerns is how much of this additional demand will be met by Chinese suppliers, and if China gets all of these requirements, steel prices will remain under pressure," Ramsay said.
China's steel production and consumption accounts for about half of global steel, its excess capacity is estimated at 300 million tons.
Faced with global criticism of China's cheap steel exports, the Beijing authorities vowed to reduce its steel production capacity by 45 million tons this year, and by the end of July it had achieved 47 per cent.
Despite cuts in production capacity, China's August crude steel production has increased for the sixth consecutive month, and its exports may also break last year's record level of 112 million tons.
In April, the International Iron and Steel Association estimated that Chinese steel demand could fall by 4% this year, but the Association said on Tuesday that it is now expecting a 1% drop in Chinese demand to 665.6 million tonnes.
It is also expected next year, China's steel demand fell 2 percent to 652.3 million tons.
The global steel industry is still vulnerable to geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the International Iron and Steel Institute says. The industry is seen as a measure of economic health, with an annual output value of $ 900 billion.
"Downside risks stem from high corporate debt and China's property market trends ... (and) the uncertainty brought about by the UK's retreat to Europe," said T. V. Narendran, chairman of the International Iron and Steel Council's Economic Committee.
The association expects Russian steel demand to fall 3.6% this year, up 0.9% next year. Russia is the world's sixth largest steel consumer.